MANA token onchain analysis. Price prediction based on whales wallets movements

2022.01.25 17:35 FollowAltcoins MANA token onchain analysis. Price prediction based on whales wallets movements

MANA token price is $ 1.96 today. It is 67% below the ATH which was $ 5.85 on November 25. Since then, the price has been in a strong downtrend. Decentraland held above the $ 3 line for a long time, but recent market events have brought the price down below the $ 2 mark.
https://preview.redd.it/1zblqull9wd81.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=f0707c49cb0a245e9b6e28be58e1e35f5fc9f313
Let's start the analysis of portfolio charts with a general summary of addresses above $ 5k. We can see that the trend is increasing. The number of wallets was 4,931 on the day when all time high was done, then increased to 5,195 from December 23, and has been going down slightly since then. This chart will always show the sentiment of the market. As we can see, the greatest euphoria is behind us. The situation on the market and the recent declines in BTC certainly contribute to this. However, this is not a significant decline, which allows you to remain optimistic for a trend reversal.
https://preview.redd.it/6l1kj6in9wd81.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=c3a2a1dd6e66dc8a669cfc3ea12f79cf11d1b890
Among the larger portfolios above $ 100k, we see a halt in gains in a similar period, but they have not been declining noticeably in recent days. You can see that larger investors are more confident in their investments and are not selling out yet.

https://preview.redd.it/gxt05ovo9wd81.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=0d555b4d1868f556a8f8fe9c559447df2076c458
The largest portfolios above $ 1M show an accumulation that started at the time of the recent market downturn. You can see here that whales see a great chance in the low price of the MANA token.
Now let's see what the specific ranges of whale wallets look like. Let us define a whale as an entity with min. 0.005% of market capitalization. For Decentraland, addresses above $ 139k in value. We analyze the graphs on a linear scale to better observe the differences between the ranges.
Let's start with the 150k - 250k USD range. Here we see a strong increase near ATH time and then a slow decline. • 250k - 500k USD. No clear changes • 500k - 1kk USD shows a slight increase. • 1kk - 1.5kk USD. Here we can see increases at the beginning of the month and then an equally large decline • 1.5kk - 2.5kk USD, some increase in the last 4 days • 2.5kk-5kk US, also continued gains.
https://preview.redd.it/6mbqnx7r9wd81.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=7bfd129d6a212b59df9f3e63796b01fa98d993f9
We must remember that if the number of wallets has decreased in some ranges, it may be due to two situations. One is the case where investors have sold tokens and are not included in the analyzed range. The second is the situation when someone bought additional ones and appeared in the results of a higher range. Therefore, the analysis must be carried out collectively and the capital flow should be taken into account.
https://preview.redd.it/1hcqkpjs9wd81.png?width=2000&format=png&auto=webp&s=016654057e19f208f7f165fb6cd2a82de3dcf6ac
Lets present changes of wallets numbers for each range of whales in the table. However we should analyse exponential moving average of the portfolios. Let's set a 28-day moving average. This will help to better visualize the trend direction. Above examples of chart with exact values for each day and 28-day moving average chart.

https://preview.redd.it/4nuy69yt9wd81.png?width=445&format=png&auto=webp&s=85a8fdd1a863a80af0d93e28b7935962640f51dd
Now let's compare the number of portfolios with the supply movements on them. This will allow us to better understand how whales behave in relation to the Decentraland project in the current market situation. For each range, supply movements are very similar to the changes in the number of portfolios.
https://preview.redd.it/4ag67duu9wd81.png?width=659&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b2715ea117739eeb8ceb2b6a52fb9aded67ebc7
Based on this information, we can determine how much the whales have grown among MANA token holders. We calculate the weighted average of the whale wallet gains, where the weight is the supply in each range.

https://preview.redd.it/cmuo9k3w9wd81.png?width=852&format=png&auto=webp&s=60a2a558896272ff54658de2ada7b87caa8c9843
On a 30-day scale, the upward trend was 6%. Compared to other altcoins, this is a lot. This value does not clearly guarantee the direction in which the price will go in the coming days. It depends on the sentiment of the whole market and other factors. However, it allows to notice that whales still accumulate MANA tokens. This shows what the potential of the Decentraland project is and how much it can grow in relation to the current price. It gives you some advantage when choosing your investment.
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PCPartPicker Part List

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